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Fund Forward

Stock Market Just Might Actually Be On the Mend

The average return of U.S. equity mutual funds in the second quarter, a stunning 19.77%, was certainly welcome news, but it gave investors absolutely no reason to believe the stock market was turning around. After all, what fundamentals were there?

The market's surprising ascent was obviously not based on earnings, which continue to be steeply negative; the consumer, who's still saving 6.9% of their earnings rather than spending; an improvement in unemployment, which is projected to top 10% this year; or corporate investments, research and development, all of which are stagnant.

Value, in fact, has become the new watchword of CEOs of luxury and bargain brand retailers and manufacturers alike.

And remember, housing prices are down as much as 25% in even the strongest markets, like New York, and year-to-date through the end of June, while U.S. diversified equity funds may have risen 6.51%, they were still down 26.52% from a year ago.

Nonetheless, there have been a few significant events recently that appear to indicate the stock market might deliver decent returns in the second half of this year.

As we report in "Week in Review," mutual, pension and hedge fund managers have been investing large quantities of cash in recent weeks. And retail investors have become more comfortable moving out of cash and money market funds back into stocks and equity and fixed-income funds.

Sentiments were certainly buoyed last Monday, when the Standard & Poor's 500 Index broke above 1,000 on the news of a government report that construction spending rose in June and manufacturing will grow next month.

Taking all of this into consideration, BlackRock issued an optimistic outlook last week, noting that while a "great deal of uncertainty remains" and we have yet to see "a full-fledged recovery or a true upturn in manufacturing demand," there have been signs of stabilization in the United States in terms of home sales, housing inventories, business confidence and productivity levels.

While it would not be realistic to expect a strong recovery following this recession, as is the cyclical norm, the government's monetary and fiscal stimulations are beginning to kick in, and as cash from the sidelines moves into the market, equity returns could be fairly strong and steady.

 

(c) 2009 Money Management Executive and SourceMedia, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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Recent Posts

Mutual Funds Must Go High-Tech-v. 3.0

Over the last number of years, mutual fund transfer agencies and shareholder communications companies have tried to convince shareholders to accept paperless summary prospectuses, proxies, trade confirmations and electronically stamped signatures. Fund supermarkets and web home pages have broadened their horizons to include market commentary, videostreaming and personal financial news. At the same time, exchange-traded funds, funds-of-funds, hedge FoFs, unified managed accounts, target dates, 401(k) auto enrollment and heightened awareness among people throughout the country of the difficulties of being retired-have taken off.

Test of the Massey Mine

Fund giant boards of directors at AllianceBernstein, American Funds, Fidelity, Vanguard and others are reportedly starting to bring about meaningful change in the corporations in which they are invested. Proof should come any day now, when the shareholder proxy votes from the annual meetings are released. Fund chief executive officers spoke about the power and influence their proxies wield in an interesting Reuters article last week, "Mutual Funds Seek to Shed 'Rubber Stamp' Tag."

Milestones

In 2011, 401(k) plans will turn 30, but the milestones the mutual fund industry has reached in this time are but a nanosecond in the history of U.S. retirement policy. Executives we interviewed for this special edition of Money Management Executive for the Investment Company Institute's meeting in Washington, speak to important milestones of the recent past and into the future. Look inside for observations and forecasts by Ted Benna, Robert L. Reynolds, Dan Fuss, David C. John, Steven Miyao and others.

At Age 30, It's Time for a Revamping for the 401(k)

This year marks the 30th anniversary of the 401(k), the revolutionary retirement savings vehicle that has been annihilating pension plans, empowering individuals to take part in the stock market-and, sadly, that left retirees with the misfortune of leaving the workforce in 2000 or 2008 very badly off. The cracks in the system are prompting many asset managers, regulators and retirement experts to take a hard look at 401(k)s and how they can be fixed.

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Lee Barney served as editor of Money Management Executive from 2002 to 2010. Previously, at United Media’s Wall Street & Technology magazine and Risk/Waters Information Services, she covered financial IT. For TheStreet.com, she wrote the daily “Meet the Street” column covering a broad spectrum of market-moving events. Lee began her career as a reporter in Tokyo with The Japan Times and was executive editor of Spotlight magazine.