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Fund Forward

2010 Will Be The Year Fund Investors Get Real

Since the recession hit two years ago, 80% of mutual fund firms have laid off tens of thousands of people, as total assets under management dropped from $11.999 trillion at the end of 2007 to $10.688 trillion as of October. In line with this 11% decline in assets, fees have undoubtedly plummeted by at least $1 billion a year.

While the S&P 500 delivered a remarkable 24.9% return last year, the fact of the matter remains, the stock market is still down 30% from its peak in October 2007. This is why investors in 2009 remained stock-spooked, yanking $36 billion from U.S. equity funds and socking $357 billion into bond funds.

As dismal as this picture is, it could have been far, far worse. Chalk it up to the inertia of 401(k) investors-whose balances were not totally decimated by the sheer fact that their steady, blind contributions kept them from drowning in a sea of red-and the market's miraculous rebound.

Investors are likely to remain cautious, discerning and demanding in 2010. They, their advisers and 401(k) sponsors will increasingly seek out funds with lower fees and consistent returns from high-quality, trustworthy companies. Safe, boring and sure will continue to be the mantra of the New Year. Annuities, absolute-return, international equity and exchange-traded funds will gain market share. And the old diversification standby will return, although assets will be far more broadly allocated than ever before.

More investors, perhaps with the help of enterprising 401(k) advice start-ups, will begin to seek out actual returns data-not numbers boosted by ongoing payroll contributions.

Less will mean more. More than 2,000 funds were liquidated or merged in 2009, one of the biggest years for consolidation on record, and the weaning out of the weak over a preference for stronger performers will carry on.

All of this will help to restore investor confidence, but the most important development in 2010 will be economic repair. With corporate revenues projected to move back into the black and inventory cycles and stimulus money finally taking hold, retail investors will return to stock funds, restoring year-over-year growth to the mutual fund industry.

2010 will be a year of getting real.

As Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel put it, "Earnings growth [in 2010] will be stronger than anticipated and break the all-time high for the S&P. With $90 in earnings and a 15 P/E ratio, you get 1,350 for the S&P. That is conservative."

 

(c) 2010 Money Management Executive and SourceMedia, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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Recent Posts

Mutual Funds Must Go High-Tech-v. 3.0

Over the last number of years, mutual fund transfer agencies and shareholder communications companies have tried to convince shareholders to accept paperless summary prospectuses, proxies, trade confirmations and electronically stamped signatures. Fund supermarkets and web home pages have broadened their horizons to include market commentary, videostreaming and personal financial news. At the same time, exchange-traded funds, funds-of-funds, hedge FoFs, unified managed accounts, target dates, 401(k) auto enrollment and heightened awareness among people throughout the country of the difficulties of being retired-have taken off.

Test of the Massey Mine

Fund giant boards of directors at AllianceBernstein, American Funds, Fidelity, Vanguard and others are reportedly starting to bring about meaningful change in the corporations in which they are invested. Proof should come any day now, when the shareholder proxy votes from the annual meetings are released. Fund chief executive officers spoke about the power and influence their proxies wield in an interesting Reuters article last week, "Mutual Funds Seek to Shed 'Rubber Stamp' Tag."

Milestones

In 2011, 401(k) plans will turn 30, but the milestones the mutual fund industry has reached in this time are but a nanosecond in the history of U.S. retirement policy. Executives we interviewed for this special edition of Money Management Executive for the Investment Company Institute's meeting in Washington, speak to important milestones of the recent past and into the future. Look inside for observations and forecasts by Ted Benna, Robert L. Reynolds, Dan Fuss, David C. John, Steven Miyao and others.

At Age 30, It's Time for a Revamping for the 401(k)

This year marks the 30th anniversary of the 401(k), the revolutionary retirement savings vehicle that has been annihilating pension plans, empowering individuals to take part in the stock market-and, sadly, that left retirees with the misfortune of leaving the workforce in 2000 or 2008 very badly off. The cracks in the system are prompting many asset managers, regulators and retirement experts to take a hard look at 401(k)s and how they can be fixed.

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