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Fund Forward

4.21.2008: Inflection Point

A number of news events in the past week alone indicate without question the U.S. economy is at a dangerous inflection point, but so far, no one-no economist, analyst, fund manager, regulator, legistator, president or CEO-is willing to put together the pieces to talk about something other than snapshot first-quarter, year-over-year or historical trendline data that make a case for the return of the markets.

Actually, it's what they are not saying that is most troubling. Namely, the snowballing layoffs and the incredibly wide disparity of wealth and opportunity in America-even for those with talent, experience and means.

Each time a layoff, housing start, GDP growth, interest rate or earnings figure is announced-and last week it was another 4,000 at Merrill Lynch and 9,000 at Citibank who will be losing their jobs-it threatens to weaken another corner of the economy; the balance, not just of subprime, is hanging.

First-quarter performance in mutual funds was awful across-the-board, and, so far, investors are holding steady and continuing to place their trust and faith in actively managed money. But how much of mutual fund investments outside of qualified contributions to 401(k)s and other defined contribution plans, come from brokerage account profits or money siphoned off from a home equity loan?

Then there was the most serious news of the week: The shock of General Electric, at the last minute, admitting it won't deliver what everyone believed were surefire earnings. Instead, they came in at a steep shortfall of 44 cents a share.

After GE pointed to a rapid deterioration in business conditions in the final two weeks of the quarter, which, it said, negated real estate and other financial transactions the firm only recently attested would mitigate losses in other areas, analysts called the bellweather stock's underperformance a cataclysmic, historic event.

It won't be the last. And that doesn't even begin to address the personal, obvious signs of pain all around. There are more homeless and desperate people wandering the streets and sleeping on the sidewalks of New York than ever before, even under the administration of President Reagan.

Food riots are now starting to break out in other areas of the globe, where an estimated 3.4 billion people live on less than $2 a day.

Vicious and senseless crime is on the rise, as well.

We here at MME are waiting patiently to hear a more realistic consensus view from the mutual fund industry on what is really going on and how we can get out of it.

Feedback: Elizabeth.barney@sourcemedia.com

Recent Posts

Mutual Funds Must Go High-Tech-v. 3.0

Over the last number of years, mutual fund transfer agencies and shareholder communications companies have tried to convince shareholders to accept paperless summary prospectuses, proxies, trade confirmations and electronically stamped signatures. Fund supermarkets and web home pages have broadened their horizons to include market commentary, videostreaming and personal financial news. At the same time, exchange-traded funds, funds-of-funds, hedge FoFs, unified managed accounts, target dates, 401(k) auto enrollment and heightened awareness among people throughout the country of the difficulties of being retired-have taken off.

Test of the Massey Mine

Fund giant boards of directors at AllianceBernstein, American Funds, Fidelity, Vanguard and others are reportedly starting to bring about meaningful change in the corporations in which they are invested. Proof should come any day now, when the shareholder proxy votes from the annual meetings are released. Fund chief executive officers spoke about the power and influence their proxies wield in an interesting Reuters article last week, "Mutual Funds Seek to Shed 'Rubber Stamp' Tag."

Milestones

In 2011, 401(k) plans will turn 30, but the milestones the mutual fund industry has reached in this time are but a nanosecond in the history of U.S. retirement policy. Executives we interviewed for this special edition of Money Management Executive for the Investment Company Institute's meeting in Washington, speak to important milestones of the recent past and into the future. Look inside for observations and forecasts by Ted Benna, Robert L. Reynolds, Dan Fuss, David C. John, Steven Miyao and others.

At Age 30, It's Time for a Revamping for the 401(k)

This year marks the 30th anniversary of the 401(k), the revolutionary retirement savings vehicle that has been annihilating pension plans, empowering individuals to take part in the stock market-and, sadly, that left retirees with the misfortune of leaving the workforce in 2000 or 2008 very badly off. The cracks in the system are prompting many asset managers, regulators and retirement experts to take a hard look at 401(k)s and how they can be fixed.

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Lee Barney

Lee Barney served as editor of Money Management Executive from 2002 to 2010. Previously, at United Media’s Wall Street & Technology magazine and Risk/Waters Information Services, she covered financial IT. For TheStreet.com, she wrote the daily “Meet the Street” column covering a broad spectrum of market-moving events. Lee began her career as a reporter in Tokyo with The Japan Times and was executive editor of Spotlight magazine.