Boomer Drawdown a Slippery Slope: Changing Times Require New Techniques
March 24, 2008
BOSTON-Asset managers will have to adapt their techniques and operations beyond their current business models to survive the shifting demands in the retirement product marketplace.
That was the resounding message at Money Management Institute's 2008 annual conference here last week, themed "Innovations in the Managed Solutions Industry."
As 77 million Baby Boomers start to retire, they will seek retirement products suited to their various lifestyles.
"The products that dominated the past will be replaced by newer, nimbler alternatives," attested Bruce Harrington, managing director of Cogent Research. Harrington and others touted exchange-traded funds, separately managed accounts and unified managed accounts, of course, but they also said that the income-producing, inflation-protected and laddered products that have been touted as the exotic far-reaching solutions completing the retirement income challenge, don't go far enough.
The money management industry will devise many more solutions that have yet to be imagined, Harrington said.
Victoria Klein, managing director and head of U.S. iShares sales for Barclays Global Investors Services, said ETFs are allowing individual investors access to esoteric market asset classes that were previously available only to institutions.
"There is nothing else out there that allows an investor to express their views in real time," Klein said.
The increasing complexity of these new products will demand that retail-oriented asset manages educate financial advisers on their appropriate use, she said.
"Our clients are going to need more solutions in order to meet their objectives," agreed Roger Paradiso, president and chief investment officer at Legg Mason Private Portfolio Group. "The whole idea of a UMA is to bring those products into one vehicle. Good advice is going to be needed because there are more products out there."
Nonetheless, Malik Salwar, senior vice president for The Permal Group, countered that the job of product providers is to represent high-quality products. Rather than trying to offer every product and fad, providers should select the best and become experts on them, creating a core fund that is more global in nature, he said.
"A good restaurant doesn't have a 10-page menu," Salwar said, adding that a portfolio manager, like a professional chef, should specialize in a few products and oversee them effortlessly.
"When you come to our firm, you buy one ticket and instantly have more exposure to high-quality managers," Salwar said.
Social Security payments currently account for 85% of the total retirement income of the bottom third of all Americans, said Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. Less than 50% of the workforce has a defined benefit or defined contribution plan, she said.
Rising healthcare premiums will take a bigger chunk out of retirees' monthly income, and Americans will need good financial advice to ensure they have money in retirement, Munnell said.
Healthcare made up a mere 7% of retirement costs in 1980. Just over a quarter of a century later, in 2007, that had climbed to 29% in 2007, and it's anticipated that healthcare costs will eat into about half, or 46%, of retirement costs, by 2030, she said.
If the demise of Social Security isn't already a given for most Americans, accelerating medical advances will ensure its failure, Munnell said.
"We have promised more benefits than we have the revenue for," Munnell said.
"It's crazy for us to think that every American should be an investment expert," she said.
Automatic enrollment has been a great start, but auto enroll programs typically invest 3% of a worker's salary into a very conservative investment like a money market fund. Five years later, employees are inevitably in the same plan, she said.
"The individual is supremely ill-equipped" to handle such long-term finances, Munnell said, noting that the average American does not contribute the maximum to their 401(k) plan, does not diversify their portfolio, does not change the balance of stocks versus bonds as they get older, and doesn't even roll over their 401(k) when they switch jobs. On top of that, those who are offered company stock often can't resist the temptation to load up on it.
"Outside of 401(k)s, Americans are saving virtually nothing," Munnell said. "People do not save on their own, except through their employer's plan or through real estate," she said. "People's homes are going to become an increasingly important asset as they get older. Current reverse mortgages are clunky, but they will become an increasingly important part of retirement income planning."
People also have a huge misconception about when they will retire. The expected retirement age is 65; the actual retirement age is 62, she said.