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TCW CIO Warns Market, Credit, Housing Crisis Could Continue for Years

By Editorial Staff

September 18, 2008

Jeffrey Gundlach, chief investment officer of TCW Group, ticked off a host of cataclysmic forecasts for the financial services industry in a client conference call Wednesday that he titled “No Market for Old Men,” MarketWatch reports.

 

The market, credit and housing crises could continue for years, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index could decline another 30%, he warned. Defaults on prime mortgage loans could soar from 2% to as high as 10%, he said, calling the fallout sheer “carnage.”

 

Citigroup could be headed for trouble, Morgan Stanley and Wachovia are likely to be the next two takeover targets, and the total write-offs among financial services firms could top $1 trillion, he said.

 

“If it’s like the Depression experience, and it sure is shaping up that way, it could take several years” for the decline to continue, Gundlach said. “Maybe we won’t see a bottom in home prices until 2014.”

 

However, he is bullish on and recommends buying the stocks in Wells Fargo, JPMorgan and Bank of America.

 

“Risk aversion is the order of the day,” he said.


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